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IMF World Economic Outlook: Forecasts by Country
What does the IMF October 2026 forecast show for the world's largest economies?
The IMF October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects the United States as the largest economy at $32.6 trillion, followed by China at $21.5 trillion, with world growth forecast at 3.1% for 2026 and world inflation at 4.7%. The edition lists 100 countries, with GDP in US dollars, growth and inflation in percent, and debt as a percentage of GDP. These are estimates and projections, not outturns, and the full table follows. The top 15 economies range from the United States at $32.6 trillion to Spain at $2.1 trillion, a ratio of 15.7 to 1. India is the fastest-growing top-15 economy at 7.0% in 2026, while Japan is the slowest at 0.7%. Debt ratios span 19.3% of GDP in Russia to 199.4% in Japan.
What is the IMF World Economic Outlook?
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is the International Monetary Fund's flagship forecast report, published twice a year, in April and October. It gives IMF staff projections for growth, inflation, debt and other indicators for almost every country.
How it is measured. Figures for recent years are staff estimates and later years are projections that assume current policies. Each edition revises the previous one, and the IMF flags large uncertainty around its baseline. Nominal GDP in US dollars is converted at projected exchange rates.
How to read it. Treat forecasts as a central scenario, not a prediction. Compare editions to see how expectations change; rankings for 2030 are sensitive to exchange rate and growth assumptions, especially for fast-growing emerging economies.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook. See our methodology.
IMF World Economic Outlook: Forecasts by Country, October 2026
| # | Country | GDP 2026 | Growth 2026 | Growth 2027 | Inflation 2026 | Debt to GDP 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | $32.64T | 2.30% | 2.30% | 3.60% | 126.80% |
| 2 | China | $21.55T | 4.50% | 4.00% | 1.00% | 104.40% |
| 3 | Germany | $5.47T | 1.30% | 1.10% | 2.70% | 64.60% |
| 4 | Japan | $4.34T | 0.70% | 0.70% | 2.00% | 199.40% |
| 5 | United Kingdom | $4.27T | 1.30% | 1.20% | 3.30% | 102.00% |
| 6 | India | $4.06T | 7.00% | 7.00% | 5.00% | 83.10% |
| 7 | France | $3.55T | 0.40% | 0.70% | 2.40% | 118.50% |
| 8 | Russia | $2.86T | 0.90% | 0.90% | 6.10% | 19.30% |
| 9 | Italy | $2.70T | 0.80% | 0.60% | 3.30% | 137.90% |
| 10 | Brazil | $2.65T | 2.20% | 1.90% | 4.40% | 97.00% |
| 11 | Canada | $2.49T | 1.10% | 1.70% | 2.80% | 115.60% |
| 12 | South Korea | $2.25T | 3.30% | 2.80% | 2.70% | 47.30% |
| 13 | Mexico | $2.18T | 1.50% | 1.80% | 3.80% | 62.10% |
| 14 | Australia | $2.11T | 1.90% | 1.60% | 3.90% | 52.60% |
| 15 | Spain | $2.09T | 2.50% | 1.80% | 3.70% | 97.60% |
| 16 | Türkiye | $1.82T | 2.70% | 3.60% | 31.20% | 22.50% |
| 17 | Indonesia | $1.48T | 5.10% | 5.10% | 3.30% | 41.70% |
| 18 | Netherlands | $1.42T | 1.50% | 1.30% | 2.90% | 45.40% |
| 19 | Saudi Arabia | $1.34T | -3.30% | 7.90% | 1.90% | 35.40% |
| 20 | Switzerland | $1.14T | 1.90% | 1.20% | 0.70% | 38.30% |
| 21 | Poland | $1.13T | 3.40% | 2.50% | 3.20% | 66.60% |
| 22 | Belgium | $772.7B | 0.70% | 1.10% | 3.80% | 109.80% |
| 23 | Argentina | $768.2B | 2.10% | 3.50% | 32.50% | 69.30% |
| 24 | Israel | $747.0B | 4.50% | 4.40% | 1.80% | 68.80% |
| 25 | Sweden | $745.1B | 2.50% | 2.20% | 1.10% | 35.10% |
| 26 | Ireland | $710.0B | -1.00% | 3.70% | 3.40% | 33.50% |
| 27 | Singapore | $667.9B | 5.00% | 3.00% | 2.30% | 166.40% |
| 28 | United Arab Emirates | $661.0B | -3.90% | 7.70% | 4.50% | 32.80% |
| 29 | Norway | $651.7B | 1.50% | 1.30% | 3.20% | 40.00% |
| 30 | Austria | $616.9B | 0.60% | 0.90% | 3.10% | 82.40% |
| 31 | Thailand | $599.1B | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 67.20% |
| 32 | Colombia | $572.7B | 2.20% | 2.30% | 6.00% | 59.50% |
| 33 | Malaysia | $547.1B | 5.20% | 4.60% | 2.20% | 69.20% |
| 34 | Vietnam | $542.1B | 8.40% | 7.50% | 4.70% | 28.30% |
| 35 | Bangladesh | $506.4B | 3.60% | 3.20% | 8.70% | 40.50% |
| 36 | Philippines | $501.7B | 3.40% | 5.10% | 5.60% | 60.50% |
| 37 | Denmark | $499.4B | 3.70% | 2.00% | 1.80% | 26.40% |
| 38 | South Africa | $489.1B | 1.00% | 1.30% | 4.40% | 78.00% |
| 39 | Romania | $470.1B | -0.50% | 2.20% | 8.20% | 62.60% |
| 40 | Hong Kong | $455.2B | 3.80% | 2.80% | 1.90% | 14.10% |
| 41 | Pakistan | $450.1B | 3.60% | 3.50% | 7.10% | 69.80% |
| 42 | Egypt | $442.9B | 5.10% | 4.70% | 13.30% | 84.00% |
| 43 | Czechia | $428.0B | 1.80% | 1.90% | 2.10% | 45.80% |
| 44 | Chile | $402.2B | 0.60% | 2.60% | 3.70% | 42.80% |
| 45 | Peru | $399.6B | 3.00% | 2.90% | 3.80% | 28.60% |
| 46 | Kazakhstan | $397.9B | 4.40% | 4.90% | 10.30% | 23.80% |
| 47 | Nigeria | $386.7B | 4.20% | 4.30% | 15.60% | 34.60% |
| 48 | Portugal | $375.2B | 2.10% | 1.90% | 3.20% | 85.10% |
| 49 | Finland | $338.6B | 1.70% | 1.40% | 2.40% | 90.60% |
| 50 | Algeria | $331.9B | 3.80% | 3.20% | 6.20% | 51.80% |
| 51 | Iran | $312.0B | -7.60% | 3.60% | 78.60% | 39.10% |
| 52 | Greece | $304.6B | 1.80% | 1.80% | 4.20% | 136.00% |
| 53 | New Zealand | $273.4B | 2.00% | 2.60% | 4.10% | 57.10% |
| 54 | Hungary | $265.9B | 1.90% | 2.10% | 1.90% | 78.70% |
| 55 | Iraq | $245.2B | -16.00% | 19.00% | 3.50% | 71.10% |
| 56 | Ukraine | $229.4B | 1.00% | 3.50% | 8.90% | 111.80% |
| 57 | Qatar | $203.0B | -15.60% | 18.80% | 3.60% | 46.40% |
| 58 | Morocco | $195.6B | 4.50% | 4.20% | 0.90% | 66.60% |
| 59 | Uzbekistan | $178.2B | 7.80% | 6.50% | 6.90% | 27.60% |
| 60 | Slovakia | $167.1B | 0.80% | 1.60% | 3.60% | 62.20% |
| 61 | Angola | $157.3B | 4.40% | 3.30% | 10.60% | 51.50% |
| 62 | Kenya | $151.2B | 4.50% | 4.70% | 6.00% | 72.90% |
| 63 | Kuwait | $146.9B | -16.70% | 17.10% | 2.20% | 26.60% |
| 64 | Bulgaria | $146.5B | 2.60% | 2.70% | 4.90% | 32.90% |
| 65 | Dominican Republic | $145.4B | 4.60% | 4.40% | 5.10% | 57.20% |
| 66 | Puerto Rico (US) | $133.2B | -0.10% | 1.00% | 3.10% | 18.20% |
| 67 | Guatemala | $132.3B | 4.00% | 3.80% | 3.00% | 27.50% |
| 68 | Ghana | $128.6B | 5.70% | 5.20% | 4.80% | 51.70% |
| 69 | Congo, Democratic Republic of | $122.3B | 5.20% | 5.70% | 4.30% | 23.70% |
| 70 | Oman | $121.4B | 4.10% | 2.20% | 3.20% | 31.10% |
| 71 | Croatia | $115.9B | 2.20% | 2.30% | 4.50% | 56.30% |
| 72 | Costa Rica | $115.3B | 3.30% | 3.50% | -0.80% | 61.80% |
| 73 | Serbia | $111.2B | 3.30% | 4.00% | 3.10% | 42.90% |
| 74 | Sri Lanka | $110.7B | 4.00% | 3.70% | 5.30% | 95.20% |
| 75 | Côte d'Ivoire | $110.4B | 6.00% | 6.10% | 2.20% | 57.80% |
| 76 | Luxembourg | $108.3B | 1.10% | 1.60% | 3.00% | 28.50% |
| 77 | Belarus | $108.1B | 1.90% | 1.20% | 5.10% | 31.10% |
| 78 | Lithuania | $104.7B | 2.70% | 2.10% | 5.40% | 44.70% |
| 79 | Panama | $96.5B | 5.00% | 4.20% | 1.80% | 56.40% |
| 80 | Tanzania | $96.2B | 6.00% | 5.90% | 4.00% | 48.10% |
| 81 | Uruguay | $95.2B | 1.30% | 2.40% | 4.00% | 67.70% |
| 82 | Azerbaijan | $89.2B | 1.70% | 2.30% | 5.80% | 16.50% |
| 83 | Slovenia | $88.9B | 3.20% | 2.20% | 3.50% | 63.50% |
| 84 | Myanmar | $83.2B | 2.00% | 2.00% | 20.00% | 53.30% |
| 85 | Turkmenistan | $83.0B | 2.40% | 2.50% | 5.60% | 2.90% |
| 86 | Uganda | $72.2B | 6.20% | 9.90% | 4.20% | 55.10% |
| 87 | Zimbabwe | $65.9B | 5.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 33.50% |
| 88 | Jordan | $64.9B | 2.70% | 3.10% | 2.50% | 82.50% |
| 89 | Cameroon | $64.8B | 3.20% | 3.60% | 3.40% | 40.10% |
| 90 | Paraguay | $64.0B | 4.50% | 4.00% | 3.10% | 36.60% |
| 91 | Tunisia | $62.7B | 2.40% | 2.00% | 5.50% | 86.10% |
| 92 | Libya | $56.9B | 3.30% | 2.90% | 14.10% | 125.20% |
| 93 | Macao | $54.7B | 3.30% | 3.10% | 1.80% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Cambodia | $54.2B | 3.00% | 4.00% | 5.60% | 25.10% |
| 95 | Bolivia, Plurinational State of | $53.8B | -3.00% | -1.50% | 12.70% | 100.20% |
| 96 | Latvia | $53.2B | 2.30% | 1.80% | 3.60% | 47.00% |
| 97 | Estonia | $51.0B | 2.10% | 2.20% | 3.00% | 27.50% |
| 98 | Bahrain | $46.0B | -11.30% | 13.90% | 2.20% | 162.80% |
| 99 | Nepal | $45.6B | 3.60% | 3.70% | 3.10% | 49.40% |
| 100 | Guinea | $45.3B | 7.20% | 7.80% | 6.30% | 34.80% |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026. Figures for 2025 and later are IMF staff estimates and projections; 100 countries shown, the European Union aggregate is excluded.
Download the full table as CSV. Cite this page: GDPIndex, “IMF World Economic Outlook: Forecasts by Country”, October 2026, https://gdpindex.org/world/imf-world-economic-outlook/.
The top of the ranking
The top of the ranking
The United States and China occupy the first two positions in the October 2026 vintage, with GDP of $32.6 trillion and $21.5 trillion respectively. Combined output of $54.2 trillion is more than the next thirteen economies together. Growth rates diverge: the United States is put at 2.3% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while China is put at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. Inflation also diverges, at 3.6% for the United States against 1.0% for China.
Debt ratios sit on opposite sides of the 100% mark. United States gross debt is 126.8% of GDP, the second highest in the top fifteen after Japan at 199.4%. China's ratio is 104.4%, above the United Kingdom at 102.0% and below France at 118.5%. The two largest economies therefore carry different policy constraints: the United States combines a 126.8% debt ratio with 3.6% inflation, and China combines a 104.4% ratio with 1.0% inflation and 4.5% growth.
Positions three to ten
Germany ranks third at $5.5 trillion, with growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027 and inflation of 2.7%. Japan follows at $4.3 trillion, with growth of 0.7% in both years, inflation of 2.0% and debt of 199.4% of GDP, the highest ratio in the group. The United Kingdom is fifth at $4.3 trillion, with growth of 1.3% and 1.2%, inflation of 3.3% and debt of 102.0%. India is sixth at $4.1 trillion, with growth of 7.0% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, the fastest of the fifteen, inflation of 5.0% and debt of 83.1%.
Growth and inflation spread
Among the fifteen largest economies, 2026 growth ranges from 0.4% in France to 7.0% in India. Inflation ranges from 1.0% in China to 6.1% in Russia. Debt ranges from 19.3% of GDP in Russia to 199.4% in Japan. World growth is put at 3.1% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027 and 3.3% in 2028, with world inflation at 4.7% in 2026. Seven of the fifteen carry debt above 100% of GDP: Japan, Italy, the United States, France, Canada, China and the United Kingdom.
Concentration and spread
Concentration and spread
The fifteen largest economies in the October 2026 vintage span a wide range of output. The United States ranks first at $32.6 trillion, followed by China at $21.5 trillion. At the other end of the group, Spain ranks fifteenth at $2.1 trillion. The ratio between the largest and smallest entry in the top 15 is 15.7 to 1. Combined, the group accounts for a substantial share of the 100 countries listed, though the brief does not publish a total for that aggregate.
Growth rates within the group diverge more sharply than output levels. India records 7.0 percent growth for 2026 and repeats 7.0 percent in 2027, the highest in the top 15. China follows at 4.5 percent for 2026, easing to 4.0 percent in 2027. France records 0.4 percent for 2026, the weakest in the group, with Japan at 0.7 percent. World growth is put at 3.1 percent for 2026, rising to 3.4 percent in 2027 and 3.3 percent in 2028.
Inflation shows a similar spread. Russia records 6.1 percent for 2026, the highest in the top 15, against world inflation of 4.7 percent. China records 1.0 percent, the lowest in the group. Australia at 3.9 percent and Spain at 3.7 percent sit above the world figure, while Japan at 2.0 percent and France at 2.4 percent sit below it.
Debt ratios vary by more than a factor of ten. Japan records 199.4 percent of GDP, the highest in the group. Italy follows at 137.9 percent and the United States at 126.8 percent. Russia records 19.3 percent, the lowest in the top 15, with South Korea at 47.3 percent and Australia at 52.6 percent.
- Largest top-15 economy: United States, $32.6 trillion.
- Smallest top-15 economy: Spain, $2.1 trillion.
- Highest 2026 growth: India, 7.0 percent.
- Lowest 2026 growth: France, 0.4 percent.
- Highest 2026 debt ratio: Japan, 199.4 percent of GDP.
- Lowest 2026 debt ratio: Russia, 19.3 percent of GDP.
Caveats and alternative measures
Caveats and alternative measures
US dollar GDP comparisons rest on market exchange rates, which can diverge sharply from purchasing power parity. The United States ranks first at $32.6 trillion against China at $21.5 trillion, a gap of roughly $11.1 trillion. Under PPP, that gap narrows substantially. Japan ranks fourth at $4.3 trillion, yet its debt stands at 199.4 per cent of GDP, the highest ratio among the fifteen largest economies. Dollar totals therefore capture output scale but not the fiscal obligations attached to that output.
Debt ratios vary by a factor of ten across the same group. Russia carries debt at 19.3 per cent of GDP, while Japan reaches 199.4 per cent and Italy 137.9 per cent. The United States sits at 126.8 per cent and France at 118.5 per cent. Bahrain, ranked 98th by GDP at $46 billion, carries debt of 162.8 per cent of GDP, exceeding every top fifteen economy except Japan. A ranking by debt burden would place Bahrain near the top and Russia near the bottom, inverting the dollar table.
Inflation differentials distort real comparisons. Russia records 6.1 per cent inflation for 2026 against China at 1 per cent, a spread of 5.1 percentage points. India grows at 7 per cent with inflation at 5 per cent, while France grows at 0.4 per cent with inflation at 2.4 per cent. Nominal dollar figures for high-inflation economies overstate real output gains relative to low-inflation peers. World inflation for 2026 is 4.7 per cent, above the 3.1 per cent world growth rate.
Growth momentum also shifts rankings over time. India and China expand at 7 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively, against 0.4 per cent for France and 0.7 per cent for Japan. Bahrain contracts 11.3 per cent in 2026 before rebounding 13.9 per cent in 2027, the widest swing in the brief. GDP per capita, PPP adjustment and debt service ratios would each reorder the table. The figures below summarise the alternative lenses.
- PPP adjustment: narrows the $11.1 trillion US-China gap.
- Debt ratio: Japan at 199.4 per cent leads the top fifteen; Russia at 19.3 per cent trails.
- Inflation spread: 6.1 per cent in Russia against 1 per cent in China.
- Growth momentum: 7 per cent in India against 0.4 per cent in France.
Frequently asked questions
What are the IMF's global growth forecasts for 2026 to 2028?
The October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects world growth of 3.1% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027 and 3.3% in 2028. The 2026 figure is 0.3 percentage points below the 2027 peak, indicating a modest near-term acceleration before a slight deceleration. Among the 100 economies listed, the United States is forecast to grow 2.3% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while China is expected to expand 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. These two economies alone account for $32.6 trillion and $21.5 trillion in 2026 GDP, respectively.
Which countries have the highest inflation rates in the October 2026 IMF forecast?
World inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026. Among the top 15 economies, Russia records the highest rate at 6.1%, followed by India at 5.0% and Brazil at 4.4%. Australia and Mexico report 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. In contrast, China has the lowest inflation at 1.0%, with Japan at 2.0% and Germany at 2.7%. The spread between Russia and China is 5.1 percentage points, reflecting divergent monetary conditions. These inflation figures are for 2026 and are expressed as annual percentage changes in consumer prices.
What are the IMF's GDP forecasts for the largest economies in 2026?
The United States remains the largest economy with a 2026 GDP of $32.6 trillion, followed by China at $21.5 trillion and Germany at $5.5 trillion. Japan ranks fourth at $4.3 trillion, just ahead of the United Kingdom at $4.3 trillion. India is sixth at $4.1 trillion, with France at $3.6 trillion and Russia at $2.9 trillion. Italy, Brazil and Canada complete the top eleven, each with GDP between $2.5 trillion and $2.7 trillion. These values are in current US dollars for 2026.
Which economies have the highest government debt as a percentage of GDP in the October 2026 forecast?
Among the top 15 economies, Japan has the highest debt ratio at 199.4% of GDP in 2026, followed by Italy at 137.9% and the United States at 126.8%. France and Canada also exceed 100%, at 118.5% and 115.6% respectively. China's debt stands at 104.4% and the United Kingdom's at 102.0%. At the other end, Russia reports the lowest ratio at 19.3%, with South Korea at 47.3% and Australia at 52.6%. These figures are general government gross debt as a share of GDP for 2026.
Which countries are projected to have the fastest and slowest growth in 2026?
Among the top 15 economies, India is forecast to grow fastest at 7.0% in 2026, followed by China at 4.5% and South Korea at 3.3%. Spain and the United States are next at 2.5% and 2.3%. The slowest growth is in France at 0.4%, with Japan and Italy at 0.7% and 0.8%. In the bottom five economies by GDP, Bahrain records the weakest growth at -11.3% in 2026, while Guinea is the fastest at 7.2%. These growth rates are annual percentage changes in real GDP for 2026.